25 November 2008

Validation, Kind Of

Nate Silver appears to agree with me. Hurray.


Luke said...

And I agree with both you and Nate Silver (btw, if his prediction re: the Minnesota Senate recount is anywhere close - well, within 27 votes - to being correct, I think he gets to transubstantiate to some higher plane of polling geekdom).

But I digress. I think that the fulminations of the political press on this issue are straw men all the way around. Barack Obama is conservative by temperament and progressive by inclination (It's why I like him! So much! But not in that way!)

Do progressives want some of the laudable goals of the campaign actually implemented? If so, experienced operators like Clingon, Emmanuel, Daschle and others are more likely to translate Obama's idealism into a workable legislative agenda.

Plus, Obama seems disinclined (thank God) to rile the netroots too much...the news today that Jim Brennan won't take the CIA job is as good an example of this as any.

If Obama can avoid the common progressive error of mistaking right thinking for right action, that would really be change we could believe in. And I think he's well on his way....

Aldous said...

(Yes re: MN, although the error on the prediction is much, much, much larger than the predicted difference. As he points out in the prediction or in a later post, the only thing it lets us say confidently is that the ballot tally before challenges are ruled on is not going to be a meaningful predictor of the final result.)

Luke said...

(Good point. Noticing these things is why you're in Poli Sci, and I haul manure :P)