Apparently, undermining some generic Western media source's earlier prediction/speculation/wild guess that Russia would not want to undermine its own position vis-a-vis the Chechens by recognizing South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence, it has done exactly that. So much for the civilizing force of hypocrisy? (Just imagine a third party attempting to secure an agreement by Russia to the "non-use of force" with the Chechens, which is what the Russians have insisted on the Georgians doing with regard to their breakaway regions.)
Meanwhile, the West finds itself continuing to stand by "the independence, the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Georgia." Two sides playing at the same hypocrisy game?
Showing posts with label Russian Insecurity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russian Insecurity. Show all posts
26 August 2008
The West and Russia: Moral Hierarchy or Equality?
20 August 2008
Right on, Mr. Gorbachev
Mikhail Gorbachev himself in the NY Times on the crisis over Georgia. The thrust of his warning:In recent days, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President Bush have been promising to isolate Russia. Some American politicians have threatened to expel it from the Group of 8 industrialized nations, to abolish the NATO-Russia Council and to keep Russia out of the World Trade Organization.
These are empty threats. For some time now, Russians have been wondering: If our opinion counts for nothing in those institutions, do we really need them? Just to sit at the nicely set dinner table and listen to lectures?
Indeed, Russia has long been told to simply accept the facts. Here’s the independence of Kosovo for you. Here’s the abrogation of the Antiballistic Missile Treaty, and the American decision to place missile defenses in neighboring countries. Here’s the unending expansion of NATO. All of these moves have been set against the backdrop of sweet talk about partnership. Why would anyone put up with such a charade?
There is much talk now in the United States about rethinking relations with Russia. One thing that should definitely be rethought: the habit of talking to Russia in a condescending way, without regard for its positions and interests.
Our two countries could develop a serious agenda for genuine, rather than token, cooperation. Many Americans, as well as Russians, understand the need for this. But is the same true of the political leaders?
08 February 2008
A New Arms Race?
Or rhetoric for domestic consumption (in Russia and abroad)?
The BBC reports that Putin, addressing his advisory state council, declared in response to NATO missile-defense deployments, that "It is already clear that a new phase in the arms race is unfolding in the world."
Time for a brief reality check / hastily-researched figures and back of the envelope calculations...
PPP-adjusted GDPs: United States, $13,860,000,000,000; Russia, $2,076,000,000,000 (CIA factbook).
Looking just at the U.S. and Russia, the former in 2005 spent 4.06% of its GDP on the military. Russia's numbers are not known, but making a brief calculation it would have to spend roughly $562.7 PPP-adjusted US dollars, or 27% of its GDP annually, to match U.S. defense spending. Since it has a fair degree of catchup to do in order to, as Putin implied, restart an arms race in hi-tech weaponry, it would probably have to spend considerably more. According to globalsecurity.org, Russia budgeted in 2006 $22.3 billion (non-PPP adjusted) for its military, already a 23% increase on the previous year. A new armaments program for the years 2007-2015 was also announced in the sum of $186 billion - but it's unclear whether how much of this sum would be on top of annual military spending. In brief, Russia doesn't seem to be the best-positioned candidate for an "arms race" with the United States - even before counting the other NATO countries.
Of course, both countries continue to possess the ability to destroy the world several times over, which leads to the question: what exactly would they be racing toward?
My half-baked attempt to rationally assess the likelihood of Putin's remarks being meant seriously, of course, falls easy victim to the observation that there doesn't need to be a rational basis or real material capability in order to construct an "arms race," as attested to by the late Cold War from, say, 1970 onward.
12 September 2007
Not Ka-blamo
Somewhat terrifying footage of a new Russian bomb from the BBC. Apparently it's a thermobaric device. More from the Australian ABC.
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